Monday, July 12, 2010

Polls Show The Dems In Deep Do Do

  The political climate for the democrat party continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate. They can all celebrate the certainty of  global warming, except that it is their seat in congress that is starting to blister their somewhat sorry back ends and not global temperatures. It's true the mercury has been rising over the past several weeks in D.C.  but the real rise is the scorching the democrats are taking in public opinion and reelection polls. We all remember how they insisted that once health care was passed and signed into law the public's perception would change. But, the most recent Rasmussen poll that came out on 7/11 showed that 53% still oppose Obama Care while only 42% approve. Shortly after passage of the bill the Rasmussen poll showed 54% opposed and 42% approved of Obama Care. Not much of a positive trend for the democrats.

A recent Gallop poll showed that by  50% to 33%,  Americans have a negative response to the federal government suing Arizona over their new immigration enforcement law. And a much larger percentage of Americans support the law and what Arizona is trying to do. This president continues to pursue this as a wedge issue to try and energize Hispanics and pro amnesty Americans to mitigate their losses in November. The strategy seems to be backfiring as more Americans understand this is a cynical attempt to hold border security hostage for an amnesty bill that most Americans reject. Democrat governors recently warned that the feds suit against Arizona is toxic, and could hurt democrats this fall. The DOJ's {department of Justice} decision to drop the New Black Panther voter intimidation case has had disastrous and immediate push back. Black  congressional candidate Allen West running in Florida's 22nd district is condemning Obama for exploiting race for political gain. 

The house
The recent polls here don't look good for democrats. The RCP house map shows that if the election were held today that the democrats would win 200 seats and the republicans would win 200 seats and there are 35 toss up seats. There are 165 safe GOP seats and 150 safe democrat seats. There are 105 democrat seats up for grabs. Of that 105, 47 are likely or lean democrat, 34 are toss ups and 24 are likely or lean GOP. Now here is the terrible news for democrats. There are really only 15 GOP seats up for grabs, and of those 15, 11 are likely or lean GOP. Therefore there are only 4 possible pickups for democrats while there are 58 possible pickups for the republicans as of right now. The mood of the country is trending away from the democrats. Robert Gibbs, the presidents press secretary admitted on Sunday that the GOP could take over the house. An admission that heretofore has not come from the administration.

The Senate
The senate picture is not quite as bleak as the house for democrats. The RCP senate map shows 49 democrat seats and 42 republican, with 9 tossups. If you didn't count toss ups and the election were held today, the dems would retain their majority 51 to 48 with one independent in Florida. Realistically, for  the GOP to gain control they would have to pick up that Florida seat with Marco Rubio, and two more of the three remaining possibilities...Washington, Wisconsin or California. It is very doable and the democrat margins are shrinking in those three states, but the GOP must also defend their leads in other toss up states. It is hard to imagine that the dems would lose Barbara Boxer's seat in California, especially since Obama enjoys still high approval ratings there. But, Boxer seems stuck in the forties, and Fiorina seems to be surging. 

A Gallup's poll taken recently shows Obama's support among independents tanking...Only 38% of independents now approve of his job performance, down from a high of 56%. A recent Democracy Corps poll shows that 55% of likely voters find "socialist" an accurate label for describing Obama. In that same poll the republicans lead in the generic ballot 48% to 42%. It is not a friendly climate at all for democrats seeking reelection. That may well be why a recent Washington Post article says the democrats are digging harder than ever for dirt on republicans. I guess when you're losing on the issues the only possible tactic is opposition research and character assassination. 

With the economy still anemic and the oil still flowing in the gulf, the administration has decided to launch a faux "recovery summer" tour... file an unpopular suit against Arizona to push an amnesty bill...Drop a voter intimidation case against the "New Black Panther Party"....enact a moratorium on all deep water drilling that will significantly impact the Gulf, and which the courts keep over turning....recess appoint an unpopular and toxic head of medicare and medicaid, and of course continue to blame Bush and the republicans for all the messes they are in. I have one word of advice for the republican party...When you see your opposition self destructing...get out of the way. We all know that the GOP is capable of blowing their chance by tripping over themselves to gain an advantage. Maybe their best strategy should be labeling themselves the lessor of two evils.
Check out my other blog.....Con-Men 4 Palin 

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